IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cyclical features of the ISAE business services series


  • Bianca Maria Martelli

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Gaia Rocchetti

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)


The paper presents some first analysis on the ISAE Market Service Survey Series, focusing on the subset referring to Business Services (BS). The aim of the work is to identify the cyclical characteristics of BS series in order to build a confidence indicator that, in our plan, would improve the forecasts on economic fluctuations. To this end, ISAE BS series are rebuilt by merging the quarterly information collected from 1992 Q1 to 2002 Q4, with those collected on a monthly basis since January 2003. The series are analysed in order to check whether the data arising from entrepreneurs’ opinions about their current and future economic situation are subject to business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, we compare the BS series chronology, detected using the Bry-Boschan routine, to the ISAE official chronology based on the ISAE – Bank of Italy methodology (Altissimo et al., 2000); however, since the official chronology indicates December 2000 as the last valid peak, we add some more recent turning points on the basis of the preliminary analysis recently presented by ISAE. Furthermore, we check whether the BS series are correlated with the GDP annual rate of growth and if they improve the forecast of GDP cyclical fluctuations. Thus, on the basis of the results of the analysis of both turning point synchronization and forecast properties, we appropriately selected some BS series to built alternative confidence indicators and compare them to the current ISAE Confidence Climate. Finally, our analysis indicates that the predictive capacity of the ISAE Business Services Confidence Indicator could be improved replacing assessments and forecasts on order books with those on turnover. However, being the time series short and highly variable, our results are not conclusive.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianca Maria Martelli & Gaia Rocchetti, 2007. "Cyclical features of the ISAE business services series," ISAE Working Papers 89, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:89

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Confidence Climate; Leading Indicators; Turning Points.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stefania Rossetti). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.