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Focalização e Cobertura do Programa Bolsa-Família: Qual o Significado dos 11 Milhões de Famílias?

Author

Listed:
  • Sergei Soares
  • Rafael Perez Ribas
  • Fábio Veras Soares

Abstract

Em 2006, o Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) atingiu a sua plena expansão, pretendendo cobrir 11 milhões de famílias, que era a meta de cobertura previamente estabelecida e foi mantida até o ano de 2009. Este trabalho visa avaliar se o aumento na cobertura do programa provocou uma deterioração na sua focalização/ progressividade e se esta meta de fato leva à cobertura completa do público-alvo do PBF. Nossos resultados demonstram que o aumento da cobertura foi acompanhado por uma pequena redução na progressividade da transferência. Contudo, não encontramos evidência de que a expansão do programa nas unidades da federação em si causou piora na focalização. Além disso, a meta de 11 milhões não cobre todo o público-alvo devido aos inevitáveis erros de focalização e ao tamanho do programa. Levando em conta esses erros, estimamos que, para cobrir toda ou quase toda a população-alvo, o programa deveria expandir-se até alcançar 15 milhões de benefícios. Mostramos, ainda, que parte do erro de inclusão observado no programa pode ser explicada pela volatilidade da renda das famílias mais pobres. Isso faz com que o público-alvo real do PBF (aquele que está ou estará abaixo da linha de R$ 120) seja consideravelmente maior que o que seria calculado por meio de uma estimação transversal da distribuição de renda em um dado momento. In 2006, the Bolsa Família Program completed its expansion, expecting to cover 11 million beneficiary families. The objective of this article is to evaluate whether this implied in deterioration in the program’s efficient targeting and whether the target of 11 million families in fact covers the entirety of Bolsa Família’s eligible target population. Our results are twofold. First, the increase in the coverage was followed by a slightly fall in the targeting. However, we do not find evidences that the coverage increase caused a worse targeting by itself. In addition, that coverage target is insufficient to cover the eligible population due to targeting errors and the size of the program. Taking into consideration the inevitable targeting errors, we estimate that the program should expand up to 15 millions of beneficiary families. Additionally, we show that a considerable part of the so-called inclusion error may be explained by the income volatility of poor families that makes the real target population of Bolsa Família (those families that are or soon will be below R$ 120 per capita) considerably larger that that calculated using a cross-section estimate of the income distribution in a given moment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergei Soares & Rafael Perez Ribas & Fábio Veras Soares, 2009. "Focalização e Cobertura do Programa Bolsa-Família: Qual o Significado dos 11 Milhões de Famílias?," Discussion Papers 1396, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1396
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael de Sousa Camelo & Priscilla Albuquerque Tavares & Carlos César Santejo Saiani, 2009. "Alimentação, Nutrição e Saúde em Programas de Transferência de Renda: Evidências para o Programa Bolsa Família," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 10(4), pages 685-713.
    2. Gabriel Lyrio de Oliveira & André Luis Squarize Chagas, 2017. "Effects of a Cash Transfer Program on Origin-Destination Migration Flows," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_28, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Armando Barrientos & Dario Debowicz & Ingrid Woolard, 2014. "Antipoverty Transfers and Inclusive Growth in Brazil," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series iriba_wp04, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    4. Alfredo Saad-Filho, 2015. "Social Policy for Neoliberalism: The Bolsa Família Programme in Brazil," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 46(6), pages 1227-1252, November.
    5. Verónica Amarante & Martí­n Brun, 2016. "Cash transfers in Latin America: Effects on poverty and redistribution," WIDER Working Paper Series 136, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Guilherme Lichand, 2010. "Decomposing the Effects of CCTs on Entrepreneurship," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10143, The World Bank.

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