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Adjustment in EMU: Is Convergence Assured?

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dullien

    (HTW Berlin, University of Applied Sciences, Germany)

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (University Hamburg, Germany)

  • Ingrid Groessl

    (University Hamburg, Germany)

  • Michael Paetz

    (University Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Using a modified version of the model presented by Belke and Gros (2007), we analyze the stability of adjustment in a currency union. Using econometric estimates for parameter values we check the stability conditions for the 11 original EMU countries and Greece. We found significant instability in the model for a large number of countries. We then simulate the adjustment process for some empirically observed parameter values and find that even for countries with relatively smooth adjustment, the adjustment to a price shock in EMU might take several decades. Keywords: EMU, convergence, stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche & Ingrid Groessl & Michael Paetz, 2009. "Adjustment in EMU: Is Convergence Assured?," IMK Working Paper 07-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:7-2009
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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