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Trust What You Hear: Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility

Author

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  • Mr. Nicolas End
  • Mr. Gee Hee Hong

Abstract

How do policy communications on future f iscal targets af fect market expectations and beliefs about the future conduct of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy announcements anchor expectations, based on the deviation of private expectations f rom official targets, for 41 countries. We find that policy announcements partly re-anchor expectations and that f iscal rules and strong fiscal institutions, as well as a good policy track record, contribute to magnifying this effect, thereby improving fiscal credibility. Conversely, empirical analysis suggests that markets reward credibility with more favorable sovereign financing conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Nicolas End & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2022. "Trust What You Hear: Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2022/036, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/036
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    Cited by:

    1. Vybhavi Balasundharam & Olivier Basdevant & Dalmacio Benicio & Andrew Ceber & Yujin Kim & Luca Mazzone & Hoda Selim & Yongzheng Yang, 2023. "Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design," IMF Working Papers 2023/063, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Amelie Barbier-Gauchard & Thierry Betti & Theo Metz, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model," Working Papers 2023.10, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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