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Computerization and the Educational Composition of Routine Work

Author

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  • Hiroshi Inokuma

    (Director, Financial System and Bank Examination Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

Over the past four decades in the US, routine employment has declined sharply while college attainment has risen steadily. I develop a quantitative model in which workers choose whether to attend college and whether to work in abstract or routine occupations. The calibrated model implies that computerization raises the return to educational skill within routine work, raising the within-occupation college share faster in routine jobs than in abstract jobs. I test this implication in the data by estimating how baseline task content predicts subsequent educational upgrading across occupations. The regression evidence confirms faster college-share growth in more routine-taskintensive occupations. Quantitatively, the model attributes about one half of the aggregate increase in the college share over 1980-2019 to computerization.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Inokuma, 2026. "Computerization and the Educational Composition of Routine Work," IMES Discussion Paper Series 26-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:26-e-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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