IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy Switching: Evidence from Japan, the U.S., and the U.K


  • Arata Ito

    (Graduate Student, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University (E-mail:

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Institute of Economic Research and Research Center for Price Dynamics, Hitotsubashi University (E-mail: tsutomu.w@srv

  • Tomoyoshi Yabu

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:


This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the U.S. and the U.K. which indicate that in these countries the government's fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Arata Ito & Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Switching: Evidence from Japan, the U.S., and the U.K," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:07-e-02

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fujiki, Hiroshi, 2003. "A model of the Federal Reserve Act under the international gold standard system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1333-1350, September.
    2. Freeman, Scott, 1999. "Rediscounting under aggregate risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 197-216, February.
    3. Fujiki, Hiroshi, 2006. "Institutions of Foreign Exchange Settlement in a Two-Country Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 697-719, April.
    4. Linda S. Goldberg & Craig Kennedy & Jason Miu, 2011. "Central bank dollar swap lines and overseas dollar funding costs," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 3-20.
    5. Mills, David Jr., 2006. "Alternative central bank credit policies for liquidity provision in a model of payments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1593-1611, October.
    6. Freeman, Scott, 1996. "The Payments System, Liquidity, and Rediscounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1126-1138, December.
    7. Mark J Manning & Matthew Willison, 2006. "Modelling the cross-border use of collateral in payment systems," Bank of England working papers 286, Bank of England.
    8. James T.E. Chapman & Antoine Martin, 2013. "Rediscounting under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 651-674, June.
    9. Hiroshi Fujiki, 2013. "Policy Measures to Alleviate Foreign Currency Liquidity Shortages under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 504-536, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
    2. Tokuo Iwaisako & Keiko Okada, 2010. "Understanding the Decline in Japan's Saving Rate in the New Millennium," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23113, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Paper Series 1529, European Central Bank.

    More about this item


    Fiscal Policy Rule; Fiscal Discipline; Markov-Switching Regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:07-e-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.