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Cross-sectional Space-time Modeling Using ARNN(p, n) Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Kakamu, Kazuhiko

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan)

  • Polasek, Wolfgang

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

We suggest a new class of cross-sectional space-time models based on local AR models and nearest neighbors using distances between observations. For the estimation we use a tightness prior for prediction of regional GDP forecasts. We extend the model to the model with exogenous variable model and hierarchical prior models. The approaches are demonstrated for a dynamic panel model for regional data in Central Europe. Finally, we find that an ARNN(1, 3) model with travel time data is best selected by marginal likelihood and there the spatial correlation is usually stronger than the time correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kakamu, Kazuhiko & Polasek, Wolfgang, 2007. "Cross-sectional Space-time Modeling Using ARNN(p, n) Processes," Economics Series 203, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:203
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-203.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ted Bergstrom, "undated". "On the Evolution of Altruistic Ethical Rules for Siblings," Papers _023, University of Michigan, Department of Economics.
    2. Bergstrom, Theodore C & Stark, Oded, 1993. "How Altruism Can Prevail in an Evolutionary Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 149-155.
    3. Bergstrom, Theodore C, 1995. "On the Evolution of Altruistic Ethical Rules for Siblings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 58-81.
    4. Binmore, Kenneth G. & Samuelson, Larry, 1992. "Evolutionary stability in repeated games played by finite automata," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 278-305, August.
    5. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-493, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic panel data; hierarchical models; marginal likelihoods; nearest neighbors; tightness prio; spatial econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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