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Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Chile

Author

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  • Medina, Juan Pablo
  • Pedersen, Michael
  • Reyes-Tagle, Gerardo

Abstract

This paper studies the long-term macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population aging in Chile using a semi-structural, multi-sector macro-fiscal model that links demographic dynamics, labor market behavior, sectoral production, fiscal revenues, age-related public expenditures, and government debt. Beyond the application to Chile, the contribution lies in the integrated nature of the framework, which allows for a consistent analysis of how demographic change propagates through the economy to affect fiscal sustainability. Chile provides a particularly relevant case given the speed of its demographic transition, the growing importance of publicly financed pension benefits, and the central role of consumption taxation, as well as a production structure in which mining plays a key role in shaping fiscal capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Medina, Juan Pablo & Pedersen, Michael & Reyes-Tagle, Gerardo, 2026. "Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 14734, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:14734
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0014496
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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