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Choques de confianza y precios de minerales: evidencia sobre la inversión minera y no minera en el Perú

Author

Listed:
  • Chavez Condori, Paulo Alejandro
  • Beverinotti, Javier
  • Alzamora, Miguel

Abstract

Este estudio analiza cómo los choques de confianza y los precios internacionales de los minerales impactan la inversión privada minera y no minera en el Perú entre 2002 y 2024. Siguiendo la metodología de Vectores Autorregresivos con Parámetros Cambiantes en el Tiempo y Volatilidad Estocástica (TVPVARSV) propuesta por Chan y Eisenstat (2018), mostramos que los choques externos influyen significativamente tanto en la inversión minera como en la no minera, mientras que los choques de confianza afectan principalmente a la inversión no minera. En el periodo post-pandemia, los factores externos y de confianza se consolidan como las principales fuentes de incertidumbre de inversión: alrededor del 50 % de la variabilidad de la inversión minera responde a shocks externos y el 35 % de la no minera a la confianza empresarial. Nuestros hallazgos aportan evidencia sobre la naturaleza dual y cambiante de los determinantes de la inversión privada en economías dependientes de recursos naturales.

Suggested Citation

  • Chavez Condori, Paulo Alejandro & Beverinotti, Javier & Alzamora, Miguel, 2026. "Choques de confianza y precios de minerales: evidencia sobre la inversión minera y no minera en el Perú," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 14540, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:14540
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013980
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • L70 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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