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The White Working Class and Voter Turnout in US Presidential Elections, 2004-2016

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Morgan

    (Cornell University)

  • Jiwon Lee

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Through an analysis of the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Current Population Surveys, as well as the 2004 through 2016 General Social Surveys, this article investigates class differences and patterns of voter turnout for the last four US presidential elections. After developing some support for the claim that a surge of white working-class voters emerged in competitive states in 2016, a portrait of class differences on political matters among white non-Hispanic eligible voters between 2004 and 2016 is offered to consider the consequences of this compositional shift. These latter results are consistent with the claim that racial prejudice, anti-immigrant sentiment, concerns about economic security, and frustration with government responsiveness may have led many white working-class voters to support an outsider candidate who campaigned on these themes. However, these same results give no support to the related claim that the white working class changed its positions on these matters in response to the 2016 primary election campaign or in the months just before the general election.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Morgan & Jiwon Lee, 2017. "The White Working Class and Voter Turnout in US Presidential Elections, 2004-2016," Working Papers 2017-078, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2017-078
    Note: MIP
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    File URL: http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Morgan_Lee_2017_white-working-class-voter-turnout.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2, 2017
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Abramowitz & Jennifer McCoy, 2019. "United States: Racial Resentment, Negative Partisanship, and Polarization in Trump’s America," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 681(1), pages 137-156, January.
    2. Pérez-Martínez, H. & Bauzá Mingueza, F. & Soriano-Paños, D. & Gómez-Gardeñes, J. & Floría, L.M., 2023. "Polarized opinion states in static networks driven by limited information horizons," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    3. Gidron, Noam & Mijs, Jonathan Jan Benjamin, 2019. "Do changes in material circumstances drive support for populist radical parties? Panel data evidence from The Netherlands during the Great Recession, 2007–2015," SocArXiv w4e6s, Center for Open Science.
    4. Nelson, Micah H., 2023. "Explaining socioeconomic disparities in electoral participation: The role of health in the SES-voting relationship," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    5. Gidron, Noam & Mijs, Jonathan J.B, 2019. "Do changes in material circumstances drive support for populist radical parties? Panel data evidence from the Netherlands during the Great Recession, 2007–2015," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100795, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    voter turnout; presidential elections; class;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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