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Can Russia's Military Expansion be Impossible Mission Force for its V-Shaped Growth Recovery under Declining Oil Prices?

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  • Kuboniwa, Masaaki

Abstract

This paper investigates whether Russia's expansion of military goods can be Impossible Mission Force (IMF) for its V-Shaped growth recovery under declining oil prices. Looking at long-run relationships between domestic outputs and international oil prices for 1995–2016, we focus on the impact of the military output expansion on growth of GDP and manufacturing for 2011–2016. We demonstrate that the military output expansion checked further growth retardation for 2012–2014 as a counter power against deteriorating oil prices or economic sanctions, while the military output expansion would not be likely to bolster up Russia's growth from 2015 onward without next oil windfalls.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2016. "Can Russia's Military Expansion be Impossible Mission Force for its V-Shaped Growth Recovery under Declining Oil Prices?," RRC Working Paper Series 64, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:rrcwps:64
    as

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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/28272/RRC_WP_No64.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2012. "Diagnosing the ‘Russian Disease’: Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(1), pages 121-148, March.
    2. Cooper, Julian, 2016. "The military dimension of a more Militant Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 129-145.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    military goods; international oil price; Impossible Mission Force; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • L64 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other Machinery; Business Equipment; Armaments

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