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Diagnosing the ‘Russian Disease’: Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy

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  • Masaaki Kuboniwa

    (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan)

Abstract

The Russian economy is experiencing ‘Russian Disease’ (R-D) whose major symptom is a strong positive relationship between the real output growth and oil prices from 1995 through 2010. The symptoms differ significantly from those characterizing Dutch Disease. We also show that there is no negative impact of the real exchange rate on output growth in Russia. Second, we find a long-run positive relationship between oil prices and the real exchange rate. Third, we show that the effect of oil prices can be captured by terms of trade and trading gains in the System of National Accounts. Fourth, we show that the increase in imports due to real appreciation of rubles, in turn, contributed to GDP growth in the trade sector, which is a major source of overall Russian growth and a symptom of R-D.

Suggested Citation

  • Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2012. "Diagnosing the ‘Russian Disease’: Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(1), pages 121-148, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:54:y:2012:i:1:p:121-148
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2016. "Can Russia's Military Expansion be Impossible Mission Force for its V-Shaped Growth Recovery under Declining Oil Prices?," RRC Working Paper Series 64, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    3. Olga Gennadyevna Vasilyeva, 2018. "Natural Resources: How to Measure Them in ‘Resource Curse’ Studies," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 67-91.
    4. Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2018. "International Presence of the Japanese Study of Russian and East European Economies," RRC Working Paper Series 74, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Prices, Total Factor Productivity and Institutional Weakness on Russia’s Declining Growth," RRC Working Paper Series 49, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
    7. Marina A. Osintseva, 2022. "Influence of Oil Factor on Economic Growth in Oil-exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 217-224.
    8. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "Russia’s Global Value Chain using a Modified World Input-Output Data," RRC Working Paper Series 50, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. ELLMAN, Michael, 2012. "What Did the Study of Transition Economies Contribute to Mainstream Economics?," RRC Working Paper Series Special_issue_no.2, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Lissovolik, Yaroslav & Kuznetsov, Aleksei & Berdigulova, Aigul, 2017. "Recovery In Trade Between The Edb Countries," Working Papers 2017-2, Eurasian Development Bank, Chief Economist Group.
    11. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2016. "Estimating GDP and Foreign Rents of the Oil and Gas Sector in the USSR then and Russia now," RRC Working Paper Series 61, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Lucia Tajoli, 2022. "Too much of a good thing? Russia-EU international trade relations at times of war," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 807-834, December.
    13. Kudrin, Alexey & Gurvich, Evsey, 2015. "A new growth model for the Russian economy1," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 30-54.

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