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Migration, Forced Displacement and Fertility during Civil War: A Survival Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Verwimp

    () (Université libre de Bruxelles)

  • Davide Osti

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Gudrun Østby

    (International Peace Research Institute Oslo)

Abstract

The civil war in Burundi (1993-2005) caused a mass flow of refugees into neighboring countries as well as a large number of internally dis- placed persons. In fact, half of the population was displaced at least once during the course of the conflict. The aim of this study is to explore to what extent migration during the conflict impacted fertility outcomes. Using retrospective data on birth and residential histories at the mother-year level from a nationally representative survey con- ducted in August 2002, we examine the impact of war and migration on the probability of first births and on birth spacing. A parametric survival regression model is adopted to predict the hazard of having an additional child on a sample of about 4,500 Burundian women. Our results suggest that the risk of an additional pregnancy is higher in years of forced displacement of the mother, whereas it is lower in the case of residence in the forced displacement site. We do not find a statistically significant effect different from no migration in the years that the women voluntary migrated. Fertility however sharply increases once the women resided in the migration site.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Verwimp & Davide Osti & Gudrun Østby, 2017. "Migration, Forced Displacement and Fertility during Civil War: A Survival Analysis," HiCN Working Papers 246, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:246
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhalotra, Sonia & Soest, Arthur van, 2008. "Birth-spacing, fertility and neonatal mortality in India: Dynamics, frailty, and fecundity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 274-290, April.
    2. Slawa Rokicki & Livia Montana & Günther Fink, 2014. "Impact of Migration on Fertility and Abortion: Evidence From the Household and Welfare Study of Accra," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2229-2254, December.
    3. Sonia Bhalotra & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Birth Spacing and Neonatal Mortality in India: Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/567, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    4. Newman, John L & McCulloch, Charles E, 1984. "A Hazard Rate Approach to the Timing of Births," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 939-961, July.
    5. Kati Schindler & Tilman Brück, 2011. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 102, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Newman, John L, 1983. "Economic Analyses of the Spacing of Births," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 33-37, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2019. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence From the Genocide in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 935-968, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; forced displacement; migration; civil war; Burundi. JEL Classification: C25; C41; I15; J13; N37; N47.;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N37 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania

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