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Decisions under Risk Dispersion and Skewness

Author

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  • Bayrak, Oben K.

    (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)

  • Hey, John D.

    (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)

Abstract

When people take decisions under risk, it is not only the expected utility that is important, but also the shape of the distribution of utility: clearly the dispersion is important, but also the skewness. For given mean and dispersion, decision-makers treat positively and negatively skewed prospects differently. This paper presents a new behaviourally-inspired model for decision making under risk, incorporating both dispersion and skewness. We run a horse-race of this new model against six other models of decision-making under risk and show that it outperforms many in terms of goodness of fit and shows a reasonable performance in predictive ability. It can incorporate the prominent anomalies of standard theory such as the Allais paradox, the valuation gap, and preference reversals, and also the behavioural patterns observed in experiments that cannot be explained by Rank Dependent Utility Theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayrak, Oben K. & Hey, John D., 2018. "Decisions under Risk Dispersion and Skewness," CERE Working Papers 2018:1, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics, revised 12 Sep 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:slucer:2018_001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bougherara, Douadia & Friesen, Lana & Nauges, Céline, 2022. "Risk-taking and skewness-seeking behavior in a demographically diverse population," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 83-104.
    3. Liqun Liu & Jack Meyer, 2021. "Stochastic superiority," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 225-246, June.
    4. Stefan Zeisberger, 2022. "Do people care about loss probabilities?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 185-213, October.
    5. Qiyan Ong & Jianying Qiu, 2023. "Paying for randomization and indecisiveness," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 45-72, August.
    6. Douadia Bougherara & Lana Friesen & Céline Nauges, 2021. "Risk Taking with Left- and Right-Skewed Lotteries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 89-112, February.
    7. Comeig, Irene & Holt, Charles & Jaramillo-Gutiérrez, Ainhoa, 2022. "Upside versus downside risk: Gender, stakes, and skewness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 21-30.
    8. Marcel Röser, 2024. "More certainty in uncertainty: a special life-cycle approach for management decisions in volatile markets," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 165-197, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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