Oil Price Shocks and Stock Return Predictability
Recent research has documented that oil price changes lead the aggregate market in most industrialized countries, and has argued that it represents an anomaly - an underreaction to information that investors can profit from. I identify oil price changes that are caused by exogenous events and show that it is only these oil price changes that predict stock returns. The exogenous events usually correspond to periods of extreme turmoil - either military conflicts in the Middle East or OPEC collapses. Given the source of the predictability, I question its usefulness as a trading strategy and its representation as an anomaly.
|Date of creation:||11 Nov 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +47 55 95 92 93
Fax: +47 55 95 96 50
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspxEmail:
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2009_013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stein Fossen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.