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A Latent Factor Model of European Exchange Rate Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Alexius, Annika

    (Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Sellin, Peter

    () (Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

The floating of a number of European currencies in 1992-93 created a new body of data on risk premia on floating exchange rates. In this paper, excess returns to investments in SEK, NOK, FIM, GBP, ITL and EPT against the DEM are investigated. We model the risk premia as functions of time varying second moments. First, univariate GARCH-M models are estimated for each currency. It turns out that excess returns are significantly higher in times of higher conditional variance for five of the six currencies investigated. Then a latent factor GARCH model that takes common effects in the different currency markets into account is applied. We use a Kalman filter to identify the unobservable risk factors and find evidence of risk premia in the sense that expected excess returns are higher in times of high conditional volatility of the factors. Expanding the model from one to two unobservable risk factors dies not improve the fit significantly. While the average magnitude of the risk premia is o.1-0.4 percentage points per year, they may reach 4-5 percentage points in times of high risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexius, Annika & Sellin, Peter, 1997. "A Latent Factor Model of European Exchange Rate Risk Premia," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 156, Stockholm School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0156
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
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    3. Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    5. Alexius, Annika, 1999. "Inflation rules with consistent escape clauses," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 509-523, March.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alex Cukierman, 1989. "Why does the Fed smooth interest rates?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 111-157.
    8. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Practical issues in monetary policy targeting," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 2-15.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2003. "Die internationale Intregration der Devisenmärkte in den mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländern: Spekulative Effizienz, Transaktionskosten und Wechselkursprämien," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Chang, Kook-Hyun & Kim, Myung-Jig, 2001. "Jumps and time-varying correlations in daily foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 611-637, October.
    3. Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate risk premia; latent factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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