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The Role of Hypothesis Testing in the Molding of Econometric Models


  • Kevin D. Hoover


The paper is a keynote lecture from the Tilburg-Madrid Conference on Hypothesis Tests: Foundations and Applications at the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED) Madrid, Spain, 15-16 December 2011. It addresses the role of tests of statistical hypotheses (specification tests) in selection of a statistically admissible model in which to evaluate economic hypotheses. The issue is formulated in the context of recent philosophical accounts on the nature of models and related to some results in the literature on specification search.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin D. Hoover, 2012. "The Role of Hypothesis Testing in the Molding of Econometric Models," Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series 2012-03, Center for the History of Political Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:hec:heccee:2012-3

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    statistical testing; hypothesis tests; models; general-to-specific specification search; optional stopping; severe tests; costs of search; costs of inference; extreme-bounds analysis; LSE econometric methodology;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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