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Analyse Contrefactuelle de l'Article 55 de la Loi SRU sur la Production de Logements Sociaux

  • Pierre-Henri Bono

    ()

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM))

  • Russell Davidson

    ()

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), Department of Mining and Materials Engineering, McGill University, Montreal - Department of Mining and Materials Engineering)

  • Alain Trannoy

    ()

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM))

Nous cherchons à mesurer l'impact de l'article 55 de loi SRU sur la production effective de logements sociaux, en utilisant plusieurs méthodes contrefactuelles (Double Différence, Double Changement) et en les confrontant à une nouvelle méthode qui utilise uniquement l'information passée des communes soumises à l'article 55 quant à leur production de logement social pour construire la distribution contrefactuelle. Nous montrons que notre stratégie repose sur des hypothèses moins contraignantes et plus susceptibles d'être vérifiées de manière indirecte que les méthodes concurrentes. En particulier, l'avantage de cette méthode est de ne pas supposer de condition de support, qui ne pourrait être vérifiée dans le cas d'espèce. Toutes les mesures concourent pour un impact positif mais faible de l'article 55. Pour une période quadriennale, le gain de production est estimé à 0,35 point de pourcentage supplémentaire de logements sociaux ou encore plus de 40 logements sociaux pour une ville de 20 000 habitants.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00796192.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00796192
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