Analyse Contrefactuelle de l’Article 55 de la Loi SRU sur la Production de Logements Sociaux

This study concerns Article 55 of the SRU law which requires certain municipalities in pain of financial penalties to have more than 20 housing. We develop in this evaluation an innovative methodology to measure the incentive of the Law on the actual production of housing. We confront our strategy to classical counterfactual methods (Differences in differences; changes in changes). Using only past information on production of social housing to build counterfactual distribution, we show that our strategy is based on less restrictive assumptions and more likely to be checked for consistency indirect methods as competitors. In particular, the advantage of this method is not to assume a condition of support, which could not be verified in the case. All measures contribute to an positive impact but small. For a quadrennial production gain is estimated at 0.35 additional percentage point or even more than 40 housing for a city of 20.000 inhabitants.