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Understanding the Causal Links between Financial Development and International Trade


  • Youssouf Kiendrebeogo

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)


This paper analyses the causal relationship between financial development and international trade using data of 21 developed and developing countries from 1961 to 2010 and appropriate time series techniques that allow us to decompose the source of causation according to the order of integration of the variables and the possible presence of a cointegrating relationship. We analyze in detail the issue of integration of our series in order to use the most appropriate stationarisation techniques on non-stationary series. We also account for the major problems encountered in empirical studies on issues of causality link between finance and the real economy. Our results provide little support to the view that financial development is a leading factor in the participation of countries in international trade. Mainly, we find a bi-directional relationship between the levels of finance and trade. Moreover, it appears that the causality pattern varies across countries with different levels of economic development. Overall, the development of the financial sector contributes more to the causal relationship in the developing countries than in the developed countries. These results are robust to the use of an alternative method of testing for causality and to the use of alternative indicators or financial development and international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, 2012. "Understanding the Causal Links between Financial Development and International Trade," Working Papers halshs-00747618, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00747618
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilas Vlatka & Bosnjak Mile & Novak Ivan, 2017. "Examining the Relationship between Financial Development and International Trade in Croatia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 80-88, April.

    More about this item


    Error Correction Model; Manufacturing Trade; Granger Causality test; Financial Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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