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The Spatial Impacts of Population Ageing

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  • Matéo Moglia

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Rich countries are ageing and will all soon lose population. This paper examines the impact of this major demographic shift on welfare and inequality by taking into account its wide spatial heterogeneity. Using administrative data on population, housing markets, and local public finance in France, I reveal a new trade-off related to population ageing: an increase in housing costs and in local tax revenues. I build and calibrate a quantitative spatial model in which households differ in terms of skill, age, and family size. I then use this model to run counterfactual experiments based on demographic forecasts. The results show small positive impacts on welfare albeit with an increase in spatial inequalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Matéo Moglia, 2025. "The Spatial Impacts of Population Ageing," Working Papers hal-05379565, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05379565
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05379565v2
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