L'imprévisibilité relative des forces économiques mondiales Une analyse du « futur du capitalisme » de Lester Thurow (1996)

Forecasting is always difficult, especially the future. Economists have sought to develop a scientific infrastructure designed to improve the productive performance and living standards of consumers and citizens. However, this body of knowledge hardly allows for the development of effective instruments to fulfill these objectives. Contrary to Fukuyama's idea of the "end of history", Lester Thurow has presented an outline of the future evolution of a capitalism whose strength as well as precariousness he measures. His analysis highlights the inadequacies of capitalism, the absence of a competing economic system, the emergence of a multipolar world without a hegemonic power, the development of regional blocs, the shortcomings of the market, the development of inequalities, the rise of the grey matter industry, the threat of demographics, the crisis of work, and economic and political instability. Several elements of analysis remain relevant, but three essential elements of the political-economic situation in the world today are unfortunately absent, such as the permanence of military warfare, especially in developed countries, and the conflict of world leadership between the United States and China. Finally, the issue of global warming and pollution is never mentioned.