Calculation of land use price and land use claims for agriculture, transport and urban land use at national level

The current deliverable report has been prepared in the framework of PLUREL Work Package 1.1 (Economic Scenarios) by Paris 1 Université - Lab. ERASME. The implementation of four scenarios for the PLUREL project allows the description of a range of possible futures in order to evaluate peri-urban land-use development. In this context the economic model NEMESIS provides, at a national level, a general overview of the impacts of such scenarios on different land-use types : agriculture, transport infrastructures and urban. The model uses a land-use module which takes into account the scarcity of land and implements a hierarchy between different land-use categories. Moreover, the module is based on economic mechanisms i.e. on the interaction between demand and supply which leads to land price. This evaluation of land-use by the NEMESIS model gives a starting point to other PLUREL partners. For instance Module 2 develops a downscaling approach of the results. This document presents the NEMESIS land-use module, its implementation in the core-model and provides simulation results for PLUREL scenarios explaining differences between scenarios as well as between countries. Scenarios with R&D investments (mainly for A1 "Hyper-tech" and to a smaller extent for A2 "Extreme water") have important economic performance that pushes up demand for land from the industry and service sectors, and from households. Therefore, urban expansion is high in those scenarios. Nevertheless, the productivity gains allow a weak increase of agricultural needs for which the evolution is very similar between scenarios because there is either strong land intensification or a weak one in the agriculture sector. Finally, despite the difference in the drivers of B1 "peak Oil" and B2 "fragmentation", we observe important similarities in land use results as was the case for economic results. Nevertheless, the dynamic between the both scenarios is not similar and some country results also differ.