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La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ?

Author

Listed:
  • Gaël Giraud

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Florent Mc Isaac

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Rossi Abi Rafeh

    (ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

Abstract

Recent talks claiming the necessity of austerity measures in France often take the unsustainibility of public debts as a starting point. In this analysis, we show that the current public debt levels in France are not a sufficient reason to undertake such austerity policies. To substantiate our claims, we apply a VAR methodology on six relevant macroeconomic French series. A negative shock of only -1% to public expenditures is found more likely to have recessionary effects (increased deficit, debt and a higher level of unemployment) rather than the expected positive effects. In particular, it would presumably increase unemployment in France by 1 million people, confirming that the main scenario threatening France today is a deflationary liquidity trap akin to the Japanese scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Giraud & Florent Mc Isaac & Rossi Abi Rafeh, 2012. "La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ?," Post-Print halshs-00841553, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00841553
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00841553
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