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Les Français sont-ils prudents ? Patrimoine et risque sur le marché du travail

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Arrondel

    (PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Hector Calvo Pardo

    (University of Southampton (Southampton, UK))

Abstract

" Constituer une réserve contre les circonstances imprévues ", voilà comment Keynes (1936) commençait sa liste des " huit motifs principaux, ou raisons de caractère subjectif, qui poussent les individus à s'abstenir de dépenser leur revenu ". Cette épargne de précaution -- notamment contre les aléas des ressources futures -- modélisée trente ans plus tard par Leland (1968), Sandmo (1970) ou Drèze et Modigliani (1972) et renouvelée par Kimball (1993), a toujours été une des motivations principales avancées pour expliquer l'accumulation du patrimoine, à côté de la préparation de la retraite et de la transmission intergénérationnelle. La quantification de la prudence des épargnants face au risque de revenu futur a fait l'objet d'une abondante littérature empirique, cependant loin d'aboutir à un consensus. Pour résumer, d'un côté les méthodes de simulation calibrant (sur données réelles de revenu) des modèles théoriques de cycle de vie pour expliquer l'épargne des ménages aboutissent à un chiffre de l'ordre de 50 % pour la part du patrimoine de précaution dans le total, alors que de l'autre, les travaux économétriques proposent une fourchette allant de 1 % à 20 %. Ces dernières évaluations semblent plus raisonnables puisqu'en d'autres termes, quantifier le motif de précaution au-delà de 50 % signifierait que la moitié des inégalités de patrimoine pourrait être expliquée uniquement par la prudence des épargnants. L'objectif de notre travail est de quantifier le motif de précaution des épargnants français face à des risques portant sur leurs revenus futurs à partir des données de l'enquête Patrimoine 2004 de l'Insee. Les mesures de ces aléas sont subjectives, directement anticipées par un membre du ménage pour les cinq années futures. Elles concernent soit la probabilité de perdre son emploi, soit les évolutions possibles du revenu. Au final, le motif d'épargne de précaution apparaît limité chez les Français.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Arrondel & Hector Calvo Pardo, 2008. "Les Français sont-ils prudents ? Patrimoine et risque sur le marché du travail," Post-Print halshs-00754280, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00754280 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-pjse.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00754280
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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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