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COLLAPSE THROUGH CONTRADICTED RESILIENCE : Political Instability, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Mali and the Sahel
[EFFONDREMENT PAR RÉSILIENCE CONTRARIÉE : Instabilité politique, capital humain et croissance économique au Mali et dans le Sahel]

Author

Listed:
  • Étienne Fakaba Sissoko

    (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, Faculté des Sciences économiques et de Gestion - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako)

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between human capital, political instability, and economic growth in Mali (2000–2023), with comparative evidence from Burkina Faso, Niger, and Senegal. The methodology relies on ARDL, VECM, and panel ARDL/PMG models, supported by stationarity tests (ADF, PP), robustness diagnostics, and bootstrap impulse responses. The main contribution lies in the construction of a Contradicted Resilience Index (CRI), which combines external dependence (FDI, aid), institutional fragility, and weak productive diversification. The results show that health spending has a positive but conditional effect, education yields ambiguous returns in unstable contexts, and instability acts as a structural barrier to growth. Extractive FDI sustains short-term resilience without fostering structural transformation, while Senegal, with greater stability, succeeds in better valorizing its human capital. Finally, the CRI magnifies the impact of political shocks on growth, providing empirical validation of the hypothesis of "collapse through contradicted resilience." JEL Codes: O11; O15; O43; C32; H52.

Suggested Citation

  • Étienne Fakaba Sissoko, 2025. "COLLAPSE THROUGH CONTRADICTED RESILIENCE : Political Instability, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Mali and the Sahel [EFFONDREMENT PAR RÉSILIENCE CONTRARIÉE : Instabilité politique, capital hu," Post-Print hal-05305758, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05305758
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17282370
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education

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