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Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Foued Saadaoui

    (King Abdulaziz University)

  • Sami Ben Jabeur

    (UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University), ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University))

  • John W Godll

Abstract

As the Russo–Ukrainian conflict obstructs the vast wheat production of Ukraine, we investigate the relationship over crises between geopolitical risk and prices of essential food commodities. We use multiresolution analysis to identify patterns concealed by high noise levels inherent with commodity prices during crises. Our sample includes such important periods as Brexit, COVID-19, and the current Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Results evidence a one-way causal relationship, with geopolitical factors significantly affecting food prices. Scholars interested in global development, as well as policy makers and international aid organizations will be especially interested in understanding the sensitivity of food prices to geopolitical risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Foued Saadaoui & Sami Ben Jabeur & John W Godll, 2022. "Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict," Post-Print hal-05238303, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05238303
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103103
    as

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