Towards a sustainable Agri-food System for Greece: Insights from the FABLE Calculator

Agriculture is a fundamental sector for Greece, accounting for more than 4% of the GDP and representing almost 11% of total employment. However, it is characterized by stagnant productivity and subpar contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. This chapter explores the transformation of the Greek agri-food system toward sustainability, leveraging insights from the FABLE calculator. The analysis highlights the environmental and economic benefits of transitioning to a National Commitments pathway, which aligns with EU and national policies and declarations and is underpinned by a bold reform agenda across the agri-food value chain. Key findings indicate that implementing targeted policies and adopting sustainable agricultural practices could halve agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 while reducing production costs by nearly 50%. A central theme of the chapter is the double dividend of shifting to a Mediterranean diet, which not only enhances public health but also significantly reduces emissions, particularly methane, from livestock. Holding all other assumptions compatible with a business-as-usual scenario, shifting to a Mediterranean diet is associated with a curbing of GHG emissions from agriculture of 5% by 2030 and 46% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. The findings underscore the importance of addressing structural challenges in the Greek agricultural sector, including fragmented landholdings, low productivity, and slow technological adoption. Policy recommendations emphasize increasing investment in precision agriculture, strengthening Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKIS), and promoting financial incentives to facilitate sustainable transitions. Moreover, integrating the Mediterranean diet into national health strategies and raising public awareness can drive demand-side shifts. Ultimately, this chapter provides a roadmap for Greece to achieve a resilient and low-emission agri-food system, aligning with broader sustainability goals while fostering economic and environmental benefits.