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Asymmetry, tail risk and time series momentum

Author

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  • Zhenya Liu

    (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

  • Shanglin Lu
  • Shixuan Wang

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how to improve the time series momentum strategy by using partial moments. We find that reversals of time series momentum can be partly predicted by tail-distributed upper and lower partial moments derived from daily returns of commodity futures. Based on such information, we propose rule-based approaches to improve the trading signals suggested by the time series momentum strategy. The empirical results based on Chinese commodity futures document statistically significant improvements of the Sharpe ratio in the out-of-sample period. These improvements are robust to different look-back windows.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenya Liu & Shanglin Lu & Shixuan Wang, 2021. "Asymmetry, tail risk and time series momentum," Post-Print hal-03511436, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03511436
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101938
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    Cited by:

    1. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O’Brien, John & O’Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Technical trading rule profitability in currencies: It’s all about momentum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Li, Si & He, Fangyi & Shi, Fangquan, 2023. "Cognitive biases, downside risk shocks, and stock expected returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Wouassom, Alain & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Tsitsianis, Nicholas, 2022. "Global momentum: The optimal trading approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Ming, Lei & Song, Wuqi & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Revisiting time series momentum in China's commodity futures market: Evidence on sources of momentum profits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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