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Modelling the stochastic dynamics of transitions between states in social systems incorporating self-organization and memory

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Zhukov

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

  • Tatiana Khvatova
  • Carla Millar
  • Anastasia Zaltcman

Abstract

This conceptual research presents a new stochastic model of the dynamics of state-to-state transitions in social systems, the Zhukov–Khvatova model. Employing a mathematical approach based on percolation theory the model caters for random changes, system memory and self-organisation. Curves representing the approach of the system to the percolation threshold differ significantly from the smooth S-shaped curves predicted by existing models, showing oscillations, steps and abrupt steep gradients. The modelling approach is new, working with system level parameters, avoiding reference to node-level changes and modelling a non-Markov process by including self-organisation and the effects (memory) of previous system states over a configurable number of time intervals. Computational modelling is used to demonstrate how the percolation threshold (i.e. the share of nodes which allows information to spread freely within the network) is reached. Possible applications of the model discussed include modelling the dynamics of viewpoints in society during social unrest and elections, changing attitudes in social networks and forecasting the outcome of promotions or uptake of campaigns. The easy availability of system level data (network connectivity, evolving system penetration) makes the model a particularly valuable addition to the toolkit for social sciences, politics, and potentially marketing.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Zhukov & Tatiana Khvatova & Carla Millar & Anastasia Zaltcman, 2020. "Modelling the stochastic dynamics of transitions between states in social systems incorporating self-organization and memory," Post-Print hal-03188186, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03188186
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Zhonghuan & Duan, Chunlin & Cui, Yuting & Qin, Rong, 2023. "Consumers' attitudes toward low-carbon consumption based on a computational model: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    2. Dmitry Zhukov & Julia Perova & Vladimir Kalinin, 2022. "Description of the Distribution Law and Non-Linear Dynamics of Growth of Comments Number in News and Blogs Based on the Fokker-Planck Equation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Zhukov, Dmitry & Khvatova, Tatiana & Millar, Carla & Andrianova, Elena, 2022. "Beyond big data – new techniques for forecasting elections using stochastic models with self-organisation and memory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    4. Zhao, Jianyu & Yu, Lean & Xi, Xi & Li, Shengliang, 2023. "Knowledge percolation threshold and optimization strategies of the combinatorial network for complex innovation in the digital economy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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