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A single queue-reactive Hawkes model for the order flow

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Wu

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marcello Rambaldi

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-François Muzy

    (SPE - Sciences pour l'environnement - UPP - Université Pascal Paoli - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuel Bacry

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this work, we introduce a multivariate Hawkes model with an explicit dependency on queue size aimed at modeling the stochastic time evolution of a single queue (best bid queue or best ask queue) of a limit order book. The order flow at a given best queue is modeled using a multivariate Hawkes process whose exogenous intensity depends on the current state on the queue. We provide an explicit way to calibrate this model with a Maximum-Likelihood method. Empirical results show that our model improves the description of the order flow properties and the shape of the queue distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Wu & Marcello Rambaldi & Jean-François Muzy & Emmanuel Bacry, 2023. "A single queue-reactive Hawkes model for the order flow," Post-Print hal-02409073, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02409073
    DOI: 10.1142/S2382626620500136
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02409073
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    2. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean--François Muzy, 2016. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: application to high-frequency order book dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1179-1201, August.
    3. Rama Cont & Sasha Stoikov & Rishi Talreja, 2010. "A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 549-563, June.
    4. Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
    5. Xiaofei Lu & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2018. "Order-book modelling and market making strategies," Papers 1806.05101, arXiv.org.
    6. Aymen Jedidi & Frédéric Abergel, 2013. "Stability and price scaling limit of a Hawkes-process based order book model," Working Papers hal-00821607, HAL.
    7. Frédéric Abergel & Aymen Jedidi, 2015. "Long-Time Behavior of a Hawkes Process--Based Limit Order Book," Post-Print hal-01121711, HAL.
    8. Marcello Rambaldi & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2018. "Disentangling and quantifying market participant volatility contributions," Papers 1807.07036, arXiv.org.
    9. Charles-Albert Lehalle & Othmane Mounjid & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "Optimal liquidity-based trading tactics," Papers 1803.05690, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01121711 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," CREATES Research Papers 2018-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Weibing Huang & Charles-Albert Lehalle & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2015. "Simulating and Analyzing Order Book Data: The Queue-Reactive Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 107-122, March.
    13. Marcello Rambaldi & Emmanuel Bacry & Fabrizio Lillo, 2017. "The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 999-1020, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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