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The “Dark Side” Of Credit Default Swaps Initiation: A Close Look At Sovereign Debt Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte Wenéyam Balima
  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We examine the effect of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) trading initiation on the occurrence of sovereign debt crises (SDC). Estimations on a large sample of 141 countries for 1980–2013 reveal that, by affecting the fiscal stance, CDS initiation increases by around 1.5 percentage points on average the probability of SDC in countries with CDS compared to the other countries. This result holds for different robustness tests and is found to be stronger for developing countries, for countries with initial lower creditworthiness, and when the degrees of central bank independence and public sector transparency are low. Consequently, compared to existing work emphasizing favorable effects, CDS trading initiation is found to have adverse effects, by increasing the occurrence of SDC. These opposite effects should fuel the literature on measuring the consequences of CDS trading initiation, and its design and implementation from a policy perspective.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte Wenéyam Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2018. "The “Dark Side” Of Credit Default Swaps Initiation: A Close Look At Sovereign Debt Crises," Post-Print hal-01951351, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01951351
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Can fiscal rules curb income inequality? Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-02423126, HAL.
    2. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    3. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES & Kabinet KABA & Alexandru MINEA, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Developing countries’ Performance: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2941, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    4. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2023. "Tax revenue and mobile money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Ablam Estel Apeti, 2022. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," Post-Print hal-03819779, HAL.
    8. Apeti, Ablam Estel, 2023. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-04227639, HAL.

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