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A DARE for VaR

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Hamidi

    (Neuflize OBC Investissements - Neuflize OBC Investissements)

  • Christophe Hurlin

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Kouontchou

    (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine)

  • Bertrand Maillet

    (A.A.Advisors-QCG - ABN AMRO, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

This paper introduces a new class of models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), called the Dynamic AutoRegressive Expectiles (DARE) models. Our approach is based on a weighted average of expectile-based VaR and ES models, i.e. the Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) models introduced by Taylor (2008a) and Kuan et al. (2009). First, we briefly present the main non-parametric, parametric and semi-parametric estimation methods for VaR and ES. Secondly, we detail the DARE approach and show how the expectiles can be used to estimate quantile risk measures. Thirdly, we use various backtesting tests to compare the DARE approach to other traditional methods for computing VaR forecasts on the French stock market. Finally, we evaluate the impact of several conditional weighting functions and determine the optimal weights in order to dynamically select the more relevant global quantile model.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Hamidi & Christophe Hurlin & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2015. "A DARE for VaR," Post-Print hal-01243402, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01243402
    DOI: 10.3917/fina.361.0007
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Benjamin Hamidi & Christophe Hurlin & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2015. "A DARE for VaR," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 36(1), pages 7-38.

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2022. "Dynamic large financial networks via conditional expected shortfalls," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 322-336.
    2. Bayer, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 56-77.
    3. David Happersberger & Harald Lohre & Ingmar Nolte, 2020. "Estimating portfolio risk for tail risk protection strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1107-1146, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Revue AERES;

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