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Measuring Uncertainty of Solvency Coverage Ratio in ORSA for Non-Life Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric Planchet

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Quentin Guibert

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Marc Juillard

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

Abstract

We apply a simple model to project the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) over several years, using an Own Risk Solvency Assessment (ORSA) perspective, in order to assess the probability of achieving a solvency coverage ratio. To do so, we rely on a simplified framework proposed in Guibert (Bulletin Français d'Actuariat 10(20), 2010) which provides a detailed explanation of the SCR. Then, we take into account temporal dynamics for liabilities, premiums and asset returns. Here, we consider guarantees in non-life insurance. This context, when simplified, allows us to use a lognormal distribution to approximate the distribution of the liabilities. It leads to a simple and tractable model for measuring the uncertainty of the solvency ratio in an ORSA perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Planchet & Quentin Guibert & Marc Juillard, 2012. "Measuring Uncertainty of Solvency Coverage Ratio in ORSA for Non-Life Insurance," Post-Print hal-01169220, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01169220
    DOI: 10.1007/s13385-012-0051-7
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01169220
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Liebwein, 2006. "Risk Models for Capital Adequacy: Applications in the Context of Solvency II and Beyond," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 31(3), pages 528-550, July.
    2. Frédéric Planchet & Quentin Guibert & Marc Juillard, 2010. "Un cadre de référence pour un modèle interne partiel en assurance de personnes," Post-Print hal-00530864, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey Nichil & Pierre Vallois, 2019. "Solvency Need Resulting from Reserving Risk in a ORSA Context," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 567-592, June.

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