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Forest, Agriculture, and Biofuels in a Land use model with Environmental services (FABLE)


  • Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
  • Thomas Hertel


The goal of this paper is to introduce FABLE (Forest, Agriculture, and Biofuels in a Land use model with Environmental services), a dynamic global model, aimed at analyzing the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services, and more stringent greenhouse gas mitigation targets. The model seeks to determine the optimal allocation of scarce land across competing uses across time. FABLE integrates distinct strands of agronomic, economic and biophysical literatures into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. It is based on a dynamic long-run, forward-looking partial equilibrium framework, in which the societal objective function places value on food production, liquid fuels (including first- and second- generation biofuels), timber production, forest carbon and biodiversity. The forestry sector is characterized by multiple forest vintages, which add considerable computational complexity in the context of this dynamic forward-looking analysis. Our baseline accurately reflects developments in global land use over the years that have already transpired, and determines the optimal path of global land use over the course of next century based on projections of population, income and demand growth from a variety of recognized sources.

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  • Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Thomas Hertel, 2012. "Forest, Agriculture, and Biofuels in a Land use model with Environmental services (FABLE)," GTAP Working Papers 3988, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:3988 Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 71

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
    2. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007. "Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 07-sr101, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    3. Seale, James & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 184321, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Gurgel Angelo & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2007. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Nelson B. Villoria & Thomas W. Hertel, 2011. "Geography Matters: International Trade Patterns and the Indirect Land Use Effects of Biofuels," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 919-935.
    6. Rose, Steven K. & Ahammad, Helal & Eickhout, Bas & Fisher, Brian & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 365-380.
    7. Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," GTAP Working Papers 2810, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    8. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Thaeripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Beckman, Jayson F. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6452, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Dicks, Michael R. & Campiche, Jody L. & Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Hellwinckel, Chad M. & Bryant, Henry L. & Richardson, James W., 2009. "Land Use Implications of Expanding Biofuel Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(02), August.
    11. Banse, Martin & van Meijl, Hans & Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Woltjer, Geert B., 2008. "Impact of EU Biofuel Policies on World Agricultural and Food Markets," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6476, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. repec:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:18:p:2188-2196 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Wallace E. Tyner, 2016. "What Is the Social Value of Second Generation Biofuels?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 599-617.

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