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Une nouvelle approche expérimentale pour tester les modèles quantiques de l'erreur de conjonction

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Duchêne

    (Université Nice Sophia Antipolis
    GREDEG-CNRS)

  • Thomas Boyer-Kassem

    (Archives H. Poincaré (UMR 7117 CNRS)
    Université de Lorraine)

  • Eric Guerci

    (Université Nice Sophia Antipolis
    GREDEG-CNRS)

Abstract

La théorie classique des probabilités requiert que la probabilité de la conjonction de deux événements soit supérieure à la probabilité d'un des événements seul. Or les sujets ne jugent empiriquement pas toujours ainsi : c'est l'erreur de conjonction. L'une des explications actuellement prometteuses de ce paradoxe repose sur des modèles dits "quantiques", développés à partir des outils mathématiques de la mécanique quantique. Mais quelles versions de ces modèles peuvent précisément être employées ? En particulier, les versions les plus simples, dites non-dégénérées, peuvent-elles être suffisantes ? Cet article teste ces versions non-dégénérées à travers certaines de leurs prédictions expérimentales, au moyen d'un protocole expérimental original. Les résultats obtenus en laboratoire suggèrent que les modèles non-dégénérés ne sont pas empiriquement adéquats, et que la recherche future concernant les modèles quantiques devrait s'orienter vers les modèles dégénérés.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Duchêne & Thomas Boyer-Kassem & Eric Guerci, 2015. "Une nouvelle approche expérimentale pour tester les modèles quantiques de l'erreur de conjonction," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-27, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, revised Oct 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2015-27
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    Keywords

    Conjunction Fallacy; Decision theory; Quantum probability;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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