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The macroeconomics of a financial Dutch disease

Author

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  • Botta, Alberto

Abstract

We describe the medium-run macroeconomic effects and long-run development consequences of a financial Dutch disease that may take place in a small developing country with abundant natural resources. The first move is in financial markets. An initial surge in foreign direct investment targeting natural resources sets in motion a perverse cycle between exchange rate appreciation and mounting short- and medium-term capital flows. Such a spiral easily leads to exchange rate volatility, capital reversals, and sharp macroeconomic instability. In the long run, macroeconomic instability and overdependence on natural resource exports dampen the development of nontraditional tradable goods sectors and curtail labor productivity dynamics. We advise the introduction of constraints to short- and medium-term capital flows to tame exchange rate/capital flows boom-and-bust cycles. We support the implementation of a developmentalist monetary policy targeting competitive nominal and real exchange rates in order to encourage product and export diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Botta, Alberto, 2015. "The macroeconomics of a financial Dutch disease," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 14065, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:14065
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Botta, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of a Financial Dutch Disease," DEM Working Papers Series 089, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed, 2017. "Oil Price Fluctuations and the Future of Saudi Arabian Non-Oil Traded Sector: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(4), pages 217-229.
    3. Coletta Frenzel Baudisch, 2019. "Chinese Capital Flows to African Economies and Real Bilateral Exchange Rates," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201910, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
    5. Okotori, Tonprebofa Waikumo & Ayunku, Peter, 2020. "The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma: Implications for the CBN and the financial markets," MPRA Paper 103880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Coletta Frenzel Baudisch, 2018. "Sectoral FDI and the Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Financial Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201828, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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