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Determinants of the duration and ending of terrorist and other non-state armed groups

Author

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  • Dominik Noe

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the impact of group characteristics and host country conditions on the duration and the ending of terrorist organizations and rebel groups. The empirical analysis relies on data for more than 600 armed groups from the Terrorist Organization Profiles, collected by the MIPT, and employs discrete time duration models with unobserved heterogeneity and its application to a setting with competing risks. It is found that organizations stabilize over time and face the highest risk of failure at the beginning. Factors that motivate members play an important role, as does support from other countries. Rich states are more likely to defeat armed groups and there is no evidence found that a restriction of civil rights decreases the duration of armed groups or increases the likelihood of capturing them.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominik Noe, 2013. "Determinants of the duration and ending of terrorist and other non-state armed groups," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 140, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 19 Sep 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:140
    as

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    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_140.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    2. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    3. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    4. S. Brock Blomberg & Rozlyn C. Engel & Reid Sawyer, 2010. "On the Duration and Sustainability of Transnational Terrorist Organizations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 303-330, April.
    5. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6014.
    7. Halvard Buhaug & Scott Gates & Päivi Lujala, 2009. "Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(4), pages 544-569, August.
    8. Karl R. de Rouen JR & David Sobek, 2004. "The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 303-320, May.
    9. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    10. Dominic Rohner & Bruno Frey, 2007. "Blood and ink! The common-interest-game between terrorists and the media," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 129-145, October.
    11. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorist organizations; Insurgency; Duration analysis; Discrete time duration model; Competing risk regression; Civil war;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H39 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Other

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