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Price Dynamics in Tanzanian Maize Markets: Insights from a Semiparametric Cointegration Model

Author

Listed:
  • Rico Ihle

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Abstract

Maize is a major staple food in Sub-Saharan Africa. Monthly maize prices in Tanzania are analyzed since the country is an important maize producer and exporter in East Africa. We analyze price transmission between the five most important urban regions of Tanzania between 2000 and 2008 which correspond to major maize production or consumption areas. We propose a novel method for the analysis. The semiparametric vector error-correction model allows the partial impact of the past deviations from price equilibria on current price changes to be potentially nonlinear. The nonparametric estimates of these partial influences suggest that they can be adequately modeled by linear functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rico Ihle & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2010. "Price Dynamics in Tanzanian Maize Markets: Insights from a Semiparametric Cointegration Model," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 54, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:054
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    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_54.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; maize; nonlinear time series model; price transmission; semiparametric model; Tanzania;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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