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Inflation Contracts And Inflation Targets Under Uncertainty: Why We Might Need Conservative Bankers

Author

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  • Anton Muscatelli

Abstract

This paper compares the relative effectiveness of inflation contracts and inflation targets in the presence of uncertainty regarding the central bank’s preferences and the underlying output target. The model explains why discretion may be superior to a delegation solution. We also show that there might be the need to combine inflation targets and contracts with the appointment of a Rogoff-type 'conservative’ central banker if contracts and targets cannot be made state-contingent, and that less flexible inflation targets may be appropriate with uncertain central bank preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Muscatelli, 1998. "Inflation Contracts And Inflation Targets Under Uncertainty: Why We Might Need Conservative Bankers," Working Papers 9801, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:9801
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrizio Tirelli, 1997. "Dynamic Seigniorage Models Revisited. Should Fiscal Flexibility and Conservative Central Bankers Go Together?," Working Papers 19, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 1999.
    2. Francesco Salsano, 2005. "Monetary Policy in the Presence Of Imperfect Observability Of The Objectives Of Central Bankers," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0523, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    3. Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "Inflation, Income Redistribution, and Optimal Central Bank Independence," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0102, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    4. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecoci, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, June.
    5. Weymark, Diana N., 2007. "Inflation, government transfers, and optimal central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 297-315, February.
    6. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    7. Diana N. Weymark, 2005. "Inflation, Government Transfers, and Optimal Central Bank Independence," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0502, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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