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Expected returns to crime and crime location

Author

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  • Nils Braakmann
  • Arnaud Chevalier
  • Tanya Wilson

Abstract

We provide first evidence that temporal variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely-held perception in the UK that households of South Asian descent store gold jewellery at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households, which become relatively more lucrative targets as the gold price increases. Using a neighbourhood-level panel on reported crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighbourhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighbourhoods in the same municipality, confirming that burglars react rationally to variations in the expected returns to their activities. We conduct a battery of tests on neighbourhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Braakmann & Arnaud Chevalier & Tanya Wilson, 2022. "Expected returns to crime and crime location," Working Papers 2022_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2022_10
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    Keywords

    Crime; Gold prices; Returns to crime; Becker model; Optimal Foraging Theory; Criminal Behaviour; Crime Location;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other

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