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Russia’s Monetary Policy in 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Bozhechkova Alexandra

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Trunin Pavel

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kiyutsevskaya Anna

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

In 2015, the Bank of Russia faced global challenges while implementing measures as part of its monetary policy. The economic situation in 2015 was marked by the following: Western sanctions and Russia’s countersanctions remained in effect, prices of Russia’s key export commodities continued to fall, economic agents’ expectations for high inflation remained intact. The sweeping depreciation of the Russian ruble in late 2014/early 2015 resulted in an inflation shock which kept the year-end inflation at high level: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 12.9% at the 2015 year-end, much higher than the 2017 mid-term target level (4%) set forth in the central bank’s Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2015–2017. In its official 2015 forecast, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development predicted inflation will not move beyond 6.3% in late 2014/early 2015, and Russia’s central bank expected it to stay at 8.2–8.7% under the baseline scenario and 9.3–9.8% under the risk scenario. At the same time, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate gradually from 17% in January down to 11% in December 2015 as inflation slowed down over the course of the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozhechkova Alexandra & Trunin Pavel & Kiyutsevskaya Anna, 2016. "Russia’s Monetary Policy in 2015," Published Papers ppaper-2016-261, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-261
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; monetary policy; money market; exchange rate; INFLATION; BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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