IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Political Variables Really Predict Exchange Rate Movements?


  • Blomberg, S.B.
  • Mountford, A.


This paper argues that Blomberg and Hess's (Journal of International Economics 1997) finding that political variables can be used to predict exchange rate movements better than the random walk model must be seen in the context of the decade and half of previous research which failed to beat this benchmark. This paper uses White's "Reality Check" methodology to test whether political variables remain as significant predictors of the exchange rate when a host of alternative competing models are taken into account. It finds that they do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Blomberg, S.B. & Mountford, A., 1999. "Can Political Variables Really Predict Exchange Rate Movements?," Papers 99-10, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:wecoec:99-10

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert E. Evenson, 1989. "Spillover Benefits of Agricultural Research: Evidence from U.S. Experience," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 447-452.
    2. Raut, Lakshmi K., 1995. "R & D spillover and productivity growth: Evidence from Indian private firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Samuel Kortum & Jonathan Putnam, 1997. "Assigning Patents to Industries: Tests of the Yale Technology Concordance," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 161-176.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item



    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H8 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:wecoec:99-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.