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Les consequences du vieillissement demographique sur l'epargne des menages en France

  • Boutillier, M.
  • Pansard, F.
  • Sejourne, B.

Clairement etablie au niveau theorique, la relation entre epargne et demographie est contreversee empiriquement. Alors que des evolutions demographiques majeures sont en cours, nous tentons de cerner dans quelle mesure la structure de la population francaise influence l'epargne des menages. Notre etude, qui porte sur la periode 1970-1997, montre que le taux d'epargne des menages est relie positivement a la part des 40-59 ans dans la population totale, et negativement a ce des individus de 75 ans et plus. Ces resultats, en partie conformes aux enseignements theoriques, peuvent etre rapproches des projections de population disponibles. On en deduit que, certis paribus, le taux d'epargne devrait croitre jusqu'en 2005-2010, pour ensuite diminuer, la generation du baby boom entrant alors en periode d'inactivite. Le vieillissement demographique devrait egalement avoir des consequences sur l'allocation de l'epargne, avec une preference pour les actifs longs pendant quelques annees encore.

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Paper provided by Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche in its series Papers with number 2000-61/ma.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:cadeco:2000-61/ma
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Caisse des depots et consignations, Services des etudes economiques et financieres, 195 Boulevard Saint Germain- 75007 Paris, France.

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