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Les conséquences du vieillissement démographique sur l'épargne des ménages en France

  • Bruno Séjourné
  • Michel Boutillier
  • Fabrice Pansard

[eng] Even though the relationship between saving and demography is clearly established in theory, it is still the subject of controversy at an empirical level. While major demographic changes are developing, we try to investigate the influence of the French population structure on household saving. Our study, which covers the 1970-1997 period, shows that households'saving rate is positively related to the proportion of the 40-59 persons in the population as a whole, and negatively to that of the 75 and more. Those results, corresponding partly to theory, can be put side by side with the available projections of population. We observe that, ceteris paribus, the saving rate should increase until 2005-2010, then decrease because of the baby boom generation then retiring. The population ageing should also imply variations in the allocation of saving, with a preference for long term assets for a few years to come. [fre] Clairement établie au niveau théorique, la relation entre épargne et démographie est controversée empiriquement. Alors que des évolutions démographiques majeures sont en cours, nous tentons de cerner dans quelle mesure la structure de la population française influence l'épargne des ménages. Notre étude, qui porte sur la période 1970-1997, montre que le taux d'épargne des ménages est relié positivement à la part des 40- 59 ans dans la population totale, et négativement à celle des individus de 75 ans et plus. Ces résultats, en partie conformes aux enseignements théoriques, peuvent être rapprochés des projections de population disponibles. On en déduit que, ceteris paribus, le taux d'épargne devrait croître jusqu'en 2005-2010, pour ensuite diminuer, la génération du baby boom entrant alors en période d'inactivité. Le vieillissement démographique devrait également avoir des conséquences sur l'allocation de l'épargne, avec une préférence pour les actifs longs pendant quelques années encore.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 51-77

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2001_num_16_1_1448
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2001.1448
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