IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/frz/wpaper/wp2018_09.rdf.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Eradicating Poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Andrea Cornia

Abstract

The paper examines whether the planned eradication of poverty to the year 2030 part of the Sustainable Development Goals strategy is compatible with the trends expected over the next 15 years in key economic variables such as GDP growth, population growth, income inequality and food prices. To do so, the paper develops a comparative-static, poverty-accounting model that allows to simulate to 2030 the impact on SDG1 (poverty eradication) of the fastest improvements recorded for the above four variables during the last 30 years. Numerous model simulations show that – even under the most favorable assumptions – between 16 and 28 countries (mainly from Africa) out of the 78 analyzed will not reach the SDG1 target. Policy suggestions on how to improve on such results are presented at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2018. "Eradicating Poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)," Working Papers - Economics wp2018_09.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2018_09.rdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.disei.unifi.it/upload/sub/pubblicazioni/repec/pdf/wp09_2018.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Cornia & Bruno Martorano, "undated". "Building the integrated inequality database and the seven sins of inequality measurement in Sub-Saharan Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2016-01, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    2. Rahul Lahoti & Arjun Jayadev & Sanjay G. Reddy, 2014. "The Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP): An Introduction and Preliminary Findings," LIS Working papers 621, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    3. Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2007. "Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso: A Reassessment of the Paradox," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(1), pages 70-101, January.
    4. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea (ed.), 2014. "Falling Inequality in Latin America: Policy Changes and Lessons," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198701804.
    5. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Bruno Martorano, 2017. "The dynamics of income inequality in a dualistic economy: Malawi from 1990 to 2011," Working Papers - Economics wp2017_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    6. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Vincenzo Salvucci, 2015. "When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(3), pages 449-464, September.
    7. Leonardo Gasparini & Federico Gutiérrez & Leopoldo Tornarolli, 2007. "Growth And Income Poverty In Latin America And The Caribbean: Evidence From Household Surveys," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 209-245, June.
    8. Li, Hongyi & Squire, Lyn & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 26-43, January.
    9. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Bruno Martorano, 2012. "Development Policies and Income Inequality in Selected Developing Regions, 1980–2010," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 210, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    10. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Bruno Martorano & Giovanni Andrea Cornia, "undated". "Building an Integrated Inequality Dataset and the Seven Sins of Inequality Measurement in sub-Saharan Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-16, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    11. Giovanna Andrea Cornia & Antonio Scognamillo, 2016. "Clusters of Least Developed Countries, their evolution between 1993 and 2013, and policies to expand their productive capacity," CDP Background Papers 033, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    12. Stephan Klasen, 2003. "In Search of The Holy Grail: How to Achieve Pro-Poor Growth ?," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 096, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Atkinson, Anthony B., 2015. "Inequality: what can be done?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101810, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Lakner,Christoph & Negre Rossignoli,Mario & Prydz,Espen Beer & Lakner,Christoph & Negre Rossignoli,Mario & Prydz,Espen Beer, 2014. "Twinning the goals : how can promoting shared prosperity help to reduce global poverty ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7106, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cornia Giovanni Andrea, 2018. "Eradicating Poverty by the Year 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Hoi Wai Jackie Cheng, 2020. "Economic properties of data and the monopolistic tendencies of data economy: policies to limit an Orwellian possibility," Working Papers 164, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    3. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2020. "Is Rising Inequality Unavoidable in a Globalizing Economy Characterized by Rapid Technical Change?," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(1), pages 39-65, March.
    4. Bruno Martorano, 2018. "Taxation and Inequality in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Recent Experience of Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 256-273, March.
    5. repec:idq:ictduk:12799 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bruno Martorano, 2018. "Taxation and Inequality in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Recent Experience of Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 256-273, March.
    7. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea, 2014. "Income inequality in Latin America. Recent decline and prospects for its further reduction," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 36852, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Guillermo Cruces & Gary S. Fields & David Jaume & Mariana Viollaz, 2015. "The growth-employment-poverty nexus in Latin America in the 2000s: Cross-country analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-110, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Facundo Alvaredo & Mauricio de Rosa & Ignacio Flores & Marc Morgan, 2022. "The Inequality (or the Growth) we Measure: Data Gaps and the Distribution of Incomes," Working Papers halshs-03693223, HAL.
    10. Francisco G. Ferreira & Nora Lustig & Daniel Teles, 2015. "Appraising cross-national income inequality databases: An introduction," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(4), pages 497-526, December.
    11. Guillermo Cruces & Gary Fields & David Jaume & Mariana Viollaz, 2015. "The growth-employment-poverty nexus in Latin America in the 2000s: Cross-country analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series 110, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul & Christoph Lakner, 2020. "The Distribution of Consumption Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Inequality Among All Africans," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-25.
    13. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Antonio Scognamillo, 2016. "Clusters of Least Developed Countries, their evolution between 1993 and 2013, and policies to expand their productive capacity," Working Papers - Economics wp2016_12.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    14. Abdulaleem Isiaka & Alexander Mihailov & Giovanni Razzi, 2022. "Reallocating Government Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Panel Data Evidence from the Middle-Income Countries," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    15. Simson, Rebecca, 2018. "Mapping recent inequality trends in developing countries," Economic History Working Papers 101863, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    16. Nora Lustig, 2018. "Measuring the Distribution of Household Income, Consumption and Wealth: State of Play and Measurement Challenges," Working Papers 1801, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    17. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea, 2014. "Income inequality in Latin America. Recent decline and prospects for its further reduction," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 149, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Anderson, Edward & d'Orey, Maria Ana Jalles & Duvendack, Maren & Esposito, Lucio, 2018. "Does Government Spending Affect Income Poverty? A Meta-regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-71.
    19. Resnick, Danielle & Birner, Regina, 2006. "Does good governance contribute to pro-poor growth?: a review of the evidence from cross-country studies," DSGD discussion papers 30, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Perugini, Cristiano, 2020. "Patterns and drivers of household income dynamics in Russia: The role of access to credit," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    21. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SDG1; poverty eradication; inequality; GDP growth; population growth; food prices; public policies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2018_09.rdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Ricchiuti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/defirit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.