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Eradicating Poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)

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  • Giovanni Andrea Cornia

Abstract

The paper examines whether the planned eradication of poverty to the year 2030 part of the Sustainable Development Goals strategy is compatible with the trends expected over the next 15 years in key economic variables such as GDP growth, population growth, income inequality and food prices. To do so, the paper develops a comparative-static, poverty-accounting model that allows to simulate to 2030 the impact on SDG1 (poverty eradication) of the fastest improvements recorded for the above four variables during the last 30 years. Numerous model simulations show that – even under the most favorable assumptions – between 16 and 28 countries (mainly from Africa) out of the 78 analyzed will not reach the SDG1 target. Policy suggestions on how to improve on such results are presented at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2018. "Eradicating Poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)," Working Papers - Economics wp2018_09.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2018_09.rdf
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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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