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What is the Central Banks Game?

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  • Charles Goodhart

    ()

  • Haizhou Huang

Abstract

In this papaer we, first, by explicitly taking account of the private sectors influence and pressure on the monetary authorities, provide a more plausible representation of the motivations of the two main players. We then incorporate persistence into the model and show that the optimal policy of the authorities will be state dependent. Finally and most importantly, we highlight an inconsistency between two strands in the literature of monetary analysis, namely the long lags of monetary policy and the time inconsistency. Such a lag of monetary policy means that the policy will be transparently observed before it affects the economy, consequently the Central Bank cannot fool anybody who has not already bound herself into a contract longer than the lag. Even if such contracts are pervasive, the inflationary bias arising from time inconsistency much be must smaller than previously assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Goodhart & Haizhou Huang, 1995. "What is the Central Banks Game?," FMG Discussion Papers dp222, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp222
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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmg_pdfs/dp222.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Centralized Wage Setting and Monetary Policy in a Reputational Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 102-118, February.
    3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
    4. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    6. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Is New Zealand's Reserve Bank Act of 1989 an Optimal Central Bank Contract?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1179-1191, November.
    7. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, January.
    8. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    9. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Rules and Discretion with Noncoordinated Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(4), pages 619-630, October.
    10. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sousa, Pedro A. B. de, 2001. "Independent and Accountable Central Banks and the European Central Bank," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 5, July.
    2. Clark, Peter B. & Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Huang, Haizhou, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy rules in a rational expectations model of the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 497-520, April.
    3. R. Rovelli & M. Polo & H. Gottinger & D. Encaoua & M. Galeotti & W. Lachmann & S. Bremer, 1997. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 103-121, February.
    4. Remsperger, Hermann & Worms, Andreas, 1999. "Transparency in monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. repec:bth:wpaper:2005-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Claude Diebolt & Antoine Parent, 2006. "Were there Anomalies in the Sterling-Franc Exchange Rate Regulation during the Mid-19th Century?," Working Papers 06-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

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