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The Future of Births via Medically Assisted Reproduction in Italy: Scenarios to 2050

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Abstract

Delayed childbearing is increasingly common in Italy, contributing to rising demand for medically assisted reproduction (MAR). This paper presents nine possible future scenarios of the share of MAR births in total births, based on the latest (2023) official data and three hypotheses on the evolution of maternal mean age at childbirth (no change, slow ageing, rapid ageing) combined with three hypotheses on the MAR share in the fertility schedule (no change, moderate increase, rapid increase). Our projections indicate that changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age have a negligible effect on future MAR prevalence. In contrast, delayed childbearing and continued expansion of MAR use could raise the share of MAR births from 4.3% in 2023 to 11–12% by mid-century, with a plausible upper bound exceeding 15% under sustained trends. These results underscore the growing demographic and social significance of MAR in Italy and highlight important implications for public health planning, resource allocation, and policies aimed at supporting earlier childbearing.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Burgio & Cinzia Castagnaro & Gustavo De Santis & Vignoli Daniele & Vitali Agnese, 2025. "The Future of Births via Medically Assisted Reproduction in Italy: Scenarios to 2050," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2025_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    • Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2025_11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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