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On the Distribution of College Dropouts: Wealth and Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Risk

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Abstract

We present a dynamic model of the decision to pursue a college degree in which students face uncertainty about their future income stream after graduation due to unobserved heterogeneity in their innate scholastic ability. After matriculating and taking some exams, students re-evaluate their expectations about succeeding in college and may decide to drop out and start working. The model shows that, in accordance with the data, poorer students are less likely to graduate and are likely to drop out sooner than wealthier students. Our model generates these results without introducing explicit credit constraints.

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  • Ali Ozdagli & Nicholas Trachter, 2015. "On the Distribution of College Dropouts: Wealth and Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Risk," Working Paper 15-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:15-15
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    1. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2008. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision: A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2163-2184, December.
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    4. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2012. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Dropout Decision," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(4), pages 707-748.
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    6. Stacey Chen, 2001. "Is Investing in College Education Risky?," Discussion Papers 01-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    7. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Nicholas Trachter, 2011. "Option Value and Transitions in a Model of Postsecondary Education," EIEF Working Papers Series 1103, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jan 2011.
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    1. Kartik B. Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos, 2020. "Who Values Access to College?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 20-03, pages 1-5, March.
    2. Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos & Felicia Ionescu & Kartik Athreya, 2016. "Investment Opportunities and the Sources of Lifetime Inequality," 2016 Meeting Papers 1177, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Kartik Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Ivan Vidangos & Urvi Neelakantan, 2018. "Investment Opportunities and Economic Outcomes: Who Benefits From College and the Stock Market?," 2018 Meeting Papers 1151, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Urvi Neelakantan & Felicia Ionescu & Kartik Athreya, 2015. "Learn Now, Save Later: College and Household Portfolios," 2015 Meeting Papers 804, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Urvi Neelakantan & Felicia Ionescu & Kartik Athreya, 2014. "Risky, Lumpy Human Capital in Household Portfolios," 2014 Meeting Papers 1242, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Yang, Guanyi, 2018. "Endogenous Skills and Labor Income Inequality," MPRA Paper 89638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ferreyra,Maria Marta & Garriga,Carlos & Martin,Juan David & Sanchez Diaz,Angelica Maria, 2020. "Raising College Access and Completion : How Much Can Free College Help ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9428, The World Bank.

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