IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednls/103899.html

AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners

Author

Abstract

There is little consensus on the effect of AI adoption on employment. Economy-wide measures of pay and headcount have moved little even as AI adoption has spread rapidly, yet narrower measures document declining hiring for workers at the start of their careers or in AI-exposed occupations. In this post, we revisit this topic for U.S. small businesses. We use data from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) to examine the twelve-month-forward employment and revenue expectations of AI users. We find that firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location. Revenue expectations are most optimistic for AI users that report facing operational challenges in utilizing technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Will Aarons & Asani Sarkar, 2026. "AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners," Liberty Street Economics 20261008, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:103899
    DOI: 10.59576/lse.20261008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business-owners/
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.59576/lse.20261008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:103899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.